Welcome to Vol. 16 of Keyed In, the official Consortium Key newsletter!

Drop your stocks and grab your blocks, it’s time to breakdown another wild week for crypto!

BTC broke $99K, Saylor aped $5.4B, Gensler resigned, XRP pumped, and a Goldfish got ransomed live on Pump.Fun. Just another week at the office!

Lots to cover (as always) so let’s dive in!

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ZOOMING OUT:

CTMC O:2.96T H:3.36T L:2.93T C:3.27T +318.15B (+10.76%) V:288.63B

CTMC extended its breakout for the third straight week, boosted by BTC’s move towards $100K and several wide range rallies amongst its top altcoins. The index continued outperforming its US equity counterparts (SPX +1.68%, NDQ +1.87%), forming a solid base of support above $3T with the help of cascading liquidations totaling over $3B for the second consecutive week.

Positive economic data and pro-crypto US cabinet appointments were the main drivers of the move, which ultimately struck rock just above $3.35T Saturday afternoon. With a near 40% gain over the last 3 weeks, it’s no surprise to see CTMC cooling off to begin this weeks trading. The index still hovers comfortably above newfound support at $3T, doing its best to lock in recent gains as the broader market continues to reflect indecision at weekly open.

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👋 GOODBYE GENSLER - SEC CHAIR RESIGNS

Following Donald Trump’s promises to remove him from office upon his return to the Oval Office, SEC Chair Gary Gensler tweeted that he will officially be resigning, effective 1/20/25.

Appointed as Chairman under President Biden in 2021, Gensler’s tenure has been highlighted by his hostile crackdown against the crypto industry, once described by him as “rife with frauds and hucksters.” Despite some objectively positive enforcement actions for the industry (including the $4.5B unwinding of a massive fraud scheme by TerraForm Labs and founder Do Kwon) Gensler’s SEC was largely considered overreaching by industry experts. Including pushback against BTC ETFs and lawsuits filed against both XRP and Coinbase, the agency initiated a record 46 enforcement actions against crypto-related entities in 2023 alone, collecting a record $8.2B.

As the reactions on social media began to flood in, CTMC saw a significant pump, and speculators were left to wonder what this means for regulation moving forward. According to Fox business, Former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins is the current frontrunner for Gensler’s replacement. While critics believe he may be too lenient, Atkin’s supporters feel his leadership would ultimately lower regulatory entry barriers and promote innovation within the space.

Overall, Gensler’s resignation presents an opportunity to completely reshape the regulatory landscape for digital assets. The administration is reportedly prioritizing a "pro-crypto” candidate, offering a chance to help crypto companies access banking services and attract major institutional interest that had previously been locked due to the lack of regulatory clarity.

👵🏻 RIP OLD YELLEN - XRP & ADA RALLY

If Gary Gensler’s resignation wasn’t enough, crypto markets were treated to another happy surprise last week following the appointment of Scott Bessent as the next US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, the pro-crypto founder of hedge fund manager Key Square Group, will be taking over for memelord Janet Yellen in January. In addition to his tenure at KSG, Bessent was instrumental in George Soros’ famous short against the British Pound in 1992.

The news was met with enthusiasm on crypto twitter, with Ripple (XRP) CEO Brad Garlinghouse referring to it as the “perfect pick”. Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson congratulated Bessent, referring to the upcoming cabinet as “the most pro-crypto cabinet of all time”.

Following the announcement, XRP and ADA saw significant rallies, giving both Garlinghouse and Hoskinson plenty of reason to applaud the pick. XRP extended its rally into 3 year highs, breaching the $1.50 level after surging over 120% over the past two weeks. ADA followed suit, reclaiming the $1 level after a 25% jump on the daily. Broader markets clearly approve as well, with both SPX and DJI hitting fresh highs following the announcement.

Both tokens seem poised to push higher so long as momentum continues, though retracement is minimal and some degree of correction is to be expected considering the depth of the moves.

🏦 MICROSAVAGERY - $5.4B BTC BUY

Unphased by the recent rally, Microstrategy uncorked a $5.4B BTC purchase on Monday—its largest acquisition of the asset on record. The purchase, MSTR’s third of the month, brought the company’s holdings to 386,700 BTC—well over 4% of total supply now amounting to nearly $38B. Using convertible note offerings and sales of its shares (which have rallied over 80% the past month), MSTR scooped the corn at an average price of $97,862 per BTC.

Following last month’s revelations regarding plans to open up the world’s first BTC bank, MSTR added 134,480 BTC in November—worth nearly $13B. For context, the company took over 3 years to acquire the same amount of BTC prior to this month’s purchases. MSTR’s stock price broke 25 year highs in November, surging 500% in 2024.

⛽️ PUMP.FUN? - LIVESTREAMS SUSPENDED

Memecoin launchpad Pump.Fun’s livestream feature was indefinitely suspended Sunday. Following calls from industry participants after a slew of troubling streams on the platform, Pump.Fun announced the suspension in a community note posted on twitter. Suicide threats, animal abuse, literal shit eating, and pornography were all broadcasted live on the platform as developers began using extreme shock content to promote their tokens.

Despite a heap of scam tokens and rugs launched on the platform, Pump.Fun has so far largely managed to avoid the eyes of regulators. The platform insists it “prevents rugs by making sure all tokens are created safe”. Obviously that isn’t the case. An example that quickly comes to mind is the teenager who (just last week) created a token and dumped it live, pocketing $30K while flipping viewers the double bird on stream.

One of 2024’s major success stories, the launchpad has played a critical role in SOL’s recent memecoin mania. Over 3.8M tokens have been launched through the platform since going live in January. The issues have reignited debates over platform moderation, and who is ultimately responsible for allowing the broadcasts—especially considering the anonymous nature of both its owners and participants.

Personally, I’m (clearly) always here for some good old-fashioned shitcoining, so long as it doesn’t involve the literal consumption of feces. I’m a starving chartist—just not that starving.

LOCKING IN:

BTC/USD (BINANCE) O:89450 H:99317 L:89271 C:97891 +8424.27 (+9.42%) V:3.68K

BTC had another remarkable week, gaining nearly 9% and sending the media into a frenzy after striking rock just below $100K. Between Gensler’s resignation, Bessent’s appointment, $3.3B in net ETF inflows and a solid short squeeze, BTC had plenty of fuel to push towards 6 figures. Things have begun to cool off at the start of this week’s trading, with a near 50% retracement on the weekly that has the asset resting just above 93K as we prepare the rest of our report.

Technically speaking, BTC remains up over 30% in the past 3 weeks despite the near 5% correction since Monday’s open. Corrections of this size are certainly to be expected considering the depth of the recent move. We will continue promoting profit taking for those who are still riding the 3 bar play discussed in Vol. 12 of KeyedIn. As mentioned last week, $100K is expected to provide meaningful psychological resistance. While a confident move above the level would almost certainly open the door for additional gains, a sizable sell wall can be seen across exchanges just below the key level. 

Looking south, plenty of wiggle room remains for healthy corrections. That being said, BTC.D narrowly avoided an engulfing candle on the weekly, suggesting a slowing of recent momentum. A decisive loss of previous week highs at $89,300 would suggest deeper corrections in play likely worth avoiding as we wait for the dust to settle.

ETH/USD (BINANCE) O:3075 H:3502 L:3031 C:3362 +286.23 (+9.31%) V:479.23K

ETH finally began to show some potential last week, gaining 9% and breaking confidently above trend for the first time since consolidation began in March. Despite its’ success and outperformance of its peers (including SOL) ETH.D continued to trend lower. ETFs (-$68M net) returned negative after back-to-back record weeks in the green. After initially bucking the market with a rally to start this week’s trading, ETH succumbed to the broader correction. The asset rests just above $3300, down a fraction of a percent as we get ready to dive into the technicals.

ETH seems to be making a textbook retest here of previous trend resist. If successful, there’s has plenty of room to run, still resting over 30% below 2021 highs. Having consolidated for nearly 8 months, a confident break above would open the door for longer term, wide-range moves well worth reentry considerations.

A loss of resistance however, would suggest additional downside in play likely worth avoiding. Relative strength remains in play to start the week and retracement is minimal, but ETH has yet to prove itself capable of matching BTC’s recent success.

If you’ve made it this far congratulations, hope you’ve enjoyed the read and looking forward to hearing your thoughts! Feel free to leave a comment below and don’t forget to vote in this week’s poll!

Stay tuned for next week and—in the meantime—consider yourself Keyed In!

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