Welcome to Keyed In, the official Consortium Key newsletter—awesome to see such a positive response from our first edition last week! Feel free to share this with your frens, looking forward to building it out along with our team and the rest of the CK community. Plenty more to come so be sure to stay tuned, and don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions, comments, suggestions, or anything else you’d like to see us dive into. NFA as always—and as always—hope you guys enjoy!

- CHEEZKING, Your Local Starving Chartist.

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ZOOMING OUT:

CTMC O:2.01T H:2.146T L:1.691T C:2.014T +2.136B (+0.11%) V:76.542B

CTMC saw a solid rebound last week, ultimately closing fractionally in the green after cratering over 7% in the Monday session. The initial drop was largely fueled by an unwinding of Yen/USD trades that spilled heavily into risk markets globally with liquidations totaling $782M across CTMC. Much of the damage has since been mitigated throughout the rest of the week’s trading. With the initial market fallout seemingly in the rear view mirror, traders can begin to look towards US CPI on Wednesday, along with major earnings data towards the end of the week. Expecting price action to remain at the will of the macro for the time being. Markets tend to correlate relative to the risk curve during times of stress.

LOCKING IN:

BTC/USD (BINANCE) O:58310 H:62798 L:49360 C:58775 +474.47 (+0.81%) V:1.672K

Holy wicks, batman! BTC staged a commendable recovery after a brief trip below critical psychological support at 50K Monday morning. Greed/Fear hit a yearly low of 17, flashing buy signals and ultimately printing what many traders believe to be a local bottom on the weekly. ETF’s saw $159M in net outflows, though inflows ramped up significantly later in the week after Morgan Stanley gave the green light to its 15,000 financial advisors to start pitching clients on the funds issued by BlackRock and Fidelity. Institutional adoption continues making waves. Notably, Santa Monica City Council unanimously approved the launch of an official BTC office, and Bitcoin mining was legalized in Russia as BRICS nations continue efforts of de-dollarization. Exchanges saw the highest weekly net outflows, totaling $1.7B in BTC.

Looking at the technicals, $61,800 seems the nearest resistance worth our attention. Any confident, sustained moves above the level would certainly suggest additional upside in play. Looking south, trend support has held firm since the onset of last week’s reversal, though a move below would open the door for deeper corrections likely worth avoiding in the interim. We try to strike a tone of humility with Keyed In, as trading is always a game of probability and never one of certainty. That being said, last weeks nibble recommendations proved extremely well-advised. There is certainly no shame in some profit taking for those who haven’t already; in avoidance of correction and anticipation of higher confidence plays above resistance. Missed money is ALWAYS better than lost money!

ETH/USD (BINANCE) O:2691 H:2725 L:2131 C:2556 -132.23 (-4.94%) V:496.548K

Unlike its eldest sibling, ETH was unable to print a green weekly candle after taking a double digit hit in Monday’s trading. Despite its’ struggles, ETH ETFs saw the first week of positive net inflows since launch, adding over $105M by Friday’s close. Liquidations totaled $220M throughout the week, eclipsed by the $284M wiped out just prior to Monday’s open. ETH’s base layer gas fees hit a multiyear low of 0.8 gwei following the Dencun upgrade, allowing traders to transact cheaply while raising concerns regarding supply inflation and spam on the network.

Technically speaking, relative weakness remains very much in play, highlighted by ETH’s dominance (ETH.D) plunging into its lowest levels in over 2 years. Similar to BTC, last week’s nibble entries have proven worthwhile. We can certainly begin to look at some light profit taking with reentries on the table confidently above $2700. Conversely, a decisive loss of support at $2500 would suggest additional downside very much still in play. ETH stands to benefit significantly from continued risk-on trading, well worth our attention ahead of US CPI with NDQ futures outpacing its’ index counterparts ahead of this week’s market open.

DXY O:103.221 H:103.546 L:102.160 C:103.154 -0.066 (-0.06%)

DXY staged a solid recovery last week after crashing against JPY in Monday’s trading. As predicted in last week’s newsletter, concerns regarding a potential intra-meeting rate cut from the US Fed were overreactive despite 60% of market participants betting on the move. Traders are still anticipating a near 100% chance of a rate cut to be announced in the September meeting, according to data from CME FedWatch. With the JPY unwind seemingly in the rear view mirror, we can begin to focus on US CPI.

Scheduled for release Wednesday, the report will almost certainly be the most influential data point in this week’s trading. July’s CPI is expected to show inflation edging closer to the Fed’s target, with annual core inflation forecasted to fall to 3.2%, the lowest since 2021. Barring any major misses, a solid CPI report should all but confirm the upcoming cut, well worth our attention as US markets continue grappling with multi-decade highs in interest rates.

CHEEZY CHARTS

TLDR:

Solid recoveries last week following Monday’s JPY fueled market crash. Relative weakness remains in play for ETH despite its ETFs outperforming BTC’s and logging the first week of positive net inflows since inception. ETH.D resting at its’ lowest levels in over 2 years. Institutional adoption ramping up, including a legalization of BTC mining in Russia as BRICS nations continue de-dollarization efforts. Last week’s nibble recommendations proved well advised. Certainly no shame in some light profit taking in avoidance of correction/anticipation of higher confidence entries above resistance. Missed money is ALWAYS better than lost money! Keeping a very close eye on US CPI releasing Wednesday, expected to show the largest drop in core inflation since 2021. NFA as always! Hope you guys have enjoyed, and feel free to place your bets down below on where you think we’ll be at come next week!

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